San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 6/2/2025

On June 2, 2025, the San Francisco Giants are set to host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park in what promises to be an exciting National League West matchup. The Giants enter the game with a record of 33-26 and have had some ups and downs this season. Conversely, the Padres boast a slightly better mark at 33-24 and are enjoying a strong season.

In their last outing, the Padres faced off against the Pittsburgh Pirates, where they managed to secure a solid win, likely boosting their confidence as they head into this series opener. The Giants are projected to start Logan Webb, the #4 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a stellar ERA of 2.82 this year, Webb has had an impressive season, although his record is only 5-5 due to some unfortunate breaks. He’s expected to pitch around 6.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters on average today.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Stephen Kolek, who has struggled this season with a 4.11 ERA and a less-than-stellar projection for today’s game, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs. The Giants' offensive struggles, ranked 25th in MLB, could hinder their ability to capitalize on Webb's strengths against Kolek.

Betting lines favor the Giants heavily as they come in with a moneyline of -175 and an average implied team total of 3.94 runs. Despite their poor offensive ranking, Webb’s elite skills on the mound give the Giants a good shot at taking this matchup. Whether they can him against the Padres' offense, which ranks 18th overall, remains to be seen. Expect a competitive and engaging game as these two teams kick off their series.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Luis Campusano is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Logan Webb has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 10.2 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 87.4-mph average last season has dropped off to 82.3-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen profiles as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.85 Units / 39% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 away games (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.48, San Francisco Giants 4.67

• Date: June 2, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres
  • Logan Webb - Giants

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