San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 6/4/2025

The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres on June 4, 2025, in a pivotal National League West matchup. Both teams are firmly in playoff contention, with the Padres holding a 35-24 record, while the Giants are slightly behind at 33-28. The last game between these two clubs saw the Giants lose a heartbreaker, and now they’ll look to rebound at Oracle Park.

On the mound, the Giants are projected to start Kyle Harrison, a left-handed pitcher with a solid 2.51 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 3.51 indicates that he may have experienced some luck in his performances, suggesting potential regression. Harrison’s high strikeout rate of 28.6% could be countered by facing the Padres’ potent offense, which strikes out the least in MLB. This matchup presents a unique challenge for Harrison, who has only started two games this season but has been effective when on the mound.

For the Padres, Nick Pivetta takes the hill. With a record of 6-2 and a 2.74 ERA, Pivetta has been a reliable presence in the rotation, though his xFIP of 3.40 hints at some good fortune. Pivetta’s ability to average 5.5 innings pitched with a solid projection of 5.6 strikeouts today could be crucial, especially against a Giants offense that ranks just 24th in the league.

Despite their recent struggles, the Giants' elite bullpen ranks 1st best in the league, which could help them keep the game close. With both offenses showing potential but struggling for consistency, the low Game Total of 7.0 runs reflects the expectation of a tight contest. The betting lines indicate a close battle, with both teams pegged at -110. With the Giants aiming to exploit Pivetta’s weaknesses, they may have the edge they need to pull off a win at home.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #27 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Luis Campusano has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Harrison has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 9.4% less often this year (32.9%) than he did last season (42.3%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 87.4-mph mark last season has dropped to 82.8-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 16 games (+12.10 Units / 64% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.55 Units / 24% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.53, San Francisco Giants 4.13

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

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