San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 6/5/2025

The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres face off in a pivotal National League West matchup on June 5, 2025, at Oracle Park. Both teams are in the mix for playoff positions, with the Giants sitting at 34-28 and the Padres slightly ahead at 35-25. This game marks the fourth in their series, adding extra intensity as they battle for supremacy in the division.

The Giants are projected to start Robbie Ray, who boasts a stellar 7-1 record and an impressive 2.43 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, as his xFIP sits at 3.71. Ray's high strikeout rate of 27.0% could be challenged by the Padres, who have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB.

On the other side, Dylan Cease takes the mound for the Padres. Despite a less favorable 1-4 record and a 4.66 ERA, the projections indicate he’s been unlucky, with a lower xFIP of 3.20 suggesting room for improvement. Cease's ability to strike out 6.1 batters per game gives him a slight edge in this matchup.

Offensively, the Giants rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Padres sit at 19th. The Giants’ lack of power is evident, ranking 22nd in home runs. Conversely, the Padres have their own struggles in that department, sitting 25th in the league. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on which pitcher can leverage their strengths against the opposing lineup's weaknesses.

Betting markets currently favor the Giants with a moneyline of -120, reflecting a close contest. As both teams vie for a crucial win, the outcome may very well depend on which pitcher can outperform their projections and deliver when it matters most.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's 2523-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 95th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

From last season to this one, Luis Arraez's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.9 mph to 84.9 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball batters like Wilmer Flores usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 17 games (+12.70 Units / 68% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.23, San Francisco Giants 3.91

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

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