San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 6/3/2025

The San Francisco Giants will host the San Diego Padres on June 3, 2025, at Oracle Park in what promises to be a compelling National League West matchup. The Giants, currently sitting at 33-27, are having a solid season, while the Padres lead slightly with a 34-24 record, marking them as one of the stronger teams in the league. In their last meeting, the Giants fell short against the Padres, adding a layer of urgency to today's game as they look to even the series.

Projected to start for the Giants is Landen Roupp, a right-handed pitcher who has shown flashes of promise, ranking as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Roupp's ERA of 3.54 indicates he has been effective, though he has struggled with consistency, boasting a 3-4 record in 11 starts. He projects to pitch around 5.4 innings today while allowing 2.3 earned runs, but his tendency to allow 5.4 hits and 1.7 walks on average could be problematic against a Padres lineup that ranks 18th in MLB offensively.

On the other hand, the Padres will counter with Ryan Bergert, who has had a rough start to the season, having not yet made a start and carrying a 0.00 ERA from his four appearances out of the bullpen. However, his xFIP of 5.34 suggests that he might not maintain this level of performance. Bergert's projections indicate he could pitch 4.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs with a concerning tendency to give up 4.4 hits and 1.7 walks.

With the Giants' offense ranking 25th in MLB and struggling to produce, they will need their best hitters to step up against Bergert. Despite their offensive woes, the Giants' bullpen ranks 1st, which could be crucial if the game remains tight. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the anticipated pitching duel. The Giants enter as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, suggesting that despite their challenges, they are expected to come out on top in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Ryan Bergert will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jake Cronenworth is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Wilmer Flores generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Bergert.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.05 Units / 48% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.99, San Francisco Giants 4.58

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Bergert - Padres
  • Landen Roupp - Giants

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.