San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 5/27/2025

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on May 27, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in what has already been an exciting series. The Tigers, with a solid 35-20 record this season, are coming off a strong performance in their last game, where they showcased their potent offense. Meanwhile, the Giants, currently standing at 31-23, are also having a good season and are looking to bounce back after a competitive outing yesterday.

On the mound, the Tigers are set to start Jack Flaherty, who has had a challenging year with a 2-6 record and a 4.39 ERA. However, his 3.37 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Flaherty's average projection of 5.6 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed could align well with the Tigers' powerful offense, which ranks 7th in MLB.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Logan Webb, an elite pitcher ranked 6th in MLB with a 2.67 ERA. Webb has been impressive with a high strikeout rate of 26.9% and is projected to pitch 6.5 innings while allowing only 2.1 earned runs. His matchup against the Tigers' offense, which is known for its high strikeout rate, could play a critical role in the game's outcome.

Despite the odds suggesting a close contest, the projections hint that the Tigers may have an edge, especially given their strong bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB. With both teams struggling with walks and hits allowed, this game could hinge on the starting pitchers' performances and the ability of each team's offense to capitalize on opportunities. As the game total sits at a low 7.0 runs, bettors should closely monitor how the pitchers fare against these lineups.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's slider rate has risen by 6.3% from last year to this one (21.3% to 27.6%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Typically, batters like Wilmer Flores who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jack Flaherty.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty's 92.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.1-mph drop off from last season's 93.3-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Batting from the same side that Logan Webb throws from, Javier Baez will have a tough challenge in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Detroit Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+10.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.99, Detroit Tigers 3.19

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

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