Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Pick – 5/25/2025

As the Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on May 25, 2025, both teams are in the thick of the American League West race. The Mariners hold a slight edge with a record of 29-22, while the Astros, at 27-25, are looking to capitalize on their home field advantage at Minute Maid Park. The Astros are currently projected to start Colton Gordon, who has struggled this season, ranking as the 180th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a dismal ERA of 5.59. In his last outing, Gordon’s performance was underwhelming, and he projects to pitch only 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs.

On the other side, the Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, who has been a standout with an ERA of 3.20 and a solid 4-3 win/loss record this season. Castillo’s consistency and ability to pitch deep into games—projected to go 6.2 innings—gives Seattle a significant advantage in this matchup.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 9th in MLB, significantly benefiting from their power-hitting capabilities, sitting 6th in home runs with 70 this season. Meanwhile, the Astros’ offense, while ranked 15th overall, has shown signs of life, particularly from their best hitter, who has had a productive week with 9 hits and 10 RBIs. However, the Astros rank 28th in stolen bases, which could limit their scoring opportunities.

With the Game Total set at an average 8.0 runs, the betting markets see this as a closely contested matchup. The Astros are currently at +110, implying a 46% chance of winning, while the Mariners are favored at -130, with a 54% implied win probability. Given Castillo's form and the Mariners' overall offensive strength, they may be poised to take control of this series.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Due to his large platoon split, Luis Castillo will be at an advantage being matched up with 8 bats in the projected lineup of the same handedness in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dylan Moore's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 88.4-mph mark last season has lowered to 85-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Extreme groundball hitters like Victor Caratini tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Castillo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+9.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 69% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.1, Houston Astros 3.87

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Colton Gordon - Astros

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