St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 5/27/2025

On May 27, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the second game of their series. The Orioles are struggling with a record of 19-34 this season, while the Cardinals sit comfortably at 30-24. Baltimore's offense ranks just 22nd in MLB, but they managed to get a win over St. Louis yesterday and will look for a repeat performance today.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Tomoyuki Sugano for the Orioles and Andre Pallante for the Cardinals. Sugano holds a 4-3 record with an impressive 3.07 ERA, but his 4.44 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and may not sustain this level of performance. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs—indicative of a below-average outing. His low strikeout rate of 13.8% could be a concern against a Cardinals lineup that is not known for its strikeouts.

Pallante, also at 4-3, has a higher ERA of 4.18, but the projections indicate he might fare better against an Orioles offense that strikes out frequently. He is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing about 2.7 earned runs. Both pitchers are projected to allow 5.7 hits, suggesting that runs could be scored.

The Orioles do possess a strong bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, which could mitigate some of the damage if Sugano struggles. However, with the Cardinals' offense ranked 9th overall, they present a significant challenge. Betting markets have set the moneyline for both teams at -110, indicating a closely contested matchup. Given the Cardinals' better overall record and offensive capabilities, they may be the team to watch in this matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has utilized his secondary offerings 5.4% more often this year (36.3%) than he did last season (30.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Victor Scott II has performed at a clip of 47.7 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 98th percentile for base-stealing.

• Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 19.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tomoyuki Sugano struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last game started and notched 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme flyball hitters like Cedric Mullins usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.8, Baltimore Orioles 4.26

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles

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