St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 5/16/2025

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 16, 2025, both teams are vying to gain momentum in their seasons. The Royals, sitting at 25-20, are experiencing a solid performance thus far, while the Cardinals are close behind with a record of 24-20, showcasing their above-average play.

Cole Ragans, projected to start for Kansas City, has been impressive, ranking as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Although his Win/Loss record stands at 2-2, his xFIP of 2.24 indicates he's been unlucky this season, suggesting a positive trend could be on the horizon. Ragans projects to pitch 5.5 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, which bodes well for the Royals given the Cardinals’ offensive tendencies.

On the flip side, St. Louis will send Andre Pallante to the mound. Pallante's peripherals reveal he is an average pitcher, with an ERA of 4.36 and a below-average strikeout rate. Facing a Royals offense that struggles with power, Pallante may find some comfort, as his high ground-ball rate is less likely to be exploited by a team that ranks last in home runs.

A major factor in the matchup is the respective offensive capabilities of both teams. The Cardinals boast the 9th best offense in MLB, while the Royals rank 27th, making this a classic case of a strong offense meeting a beleaguered one. With odds favoring the Royals at -155 and a high implied team total of 4.66 runs, they would do well to capitalize on their opportunities against the average Cardinals' bullpen. This game represents a crucial chance for Kansas City to assert their position as a serious contender in the series.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (93.3 mph) below where it was last season (94.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Hitting 4 homers over the last 14 days, Willson Contreras has been on fire recently.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

In today's matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.2% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Bats such as Salvador Perez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andre Pallante who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Kansas City Royals (20.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+9.45 Units / 105% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.96, Kansas City Royals 4.76

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

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