St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers Pick – 6/1/2025

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 1, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their respective standings. The Rangers currently sit at 28-31, struggling to find consistency this season, while the Cardinals boast a solid 33-25 record, positioning themselves as a competitive force in the league. In their last encounter, the Rangers fell to the Cardinals, raising stakes for this matchup as they aim to bounce back.

This game features a compelling pitching duel between elite right-hander Jacob deGrom and the Cardinals' Erick Fedde. DeGrom has been a standout pitcher this season, ranking as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. With a 4-2 record and a stellar 2.42 ERA, he projects to pitch an average of 5.7 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs today. However, his 3.36 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck, indicating potential for regression.

Conversely, Fedde has been less reliable, sporting a 3-4 record and a 3.90 ERA, with a concerning 4.91 xFIP that hints at his struggles. The projections suggest that he will also pitch around 5.9 innings but could allow more earned runs than deGrom.

Offensively, the Rangers rank a dismal 30th in MLB, particularly struggling to hit for average, which positions them at 29th in team batting average. On the flip side, the Cardinals excel at the plate, ranking 7th overall. With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup presents an interesting dynamic. The Rangers are favored at -175, but their struggles should give the Cardinals a glimmer of hope to pull off an upset against a pitcher of deGrom's caliber.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's 2065-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 13th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, Willson Contreras has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.3 mph compared to last year's 95.1 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Given that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Jacob deGrom (38.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposition's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, bats like Marcus Semien who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Erick Fedde.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Texas Rangers have been the unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 31 games at home (+16.20 Units / 47% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 24 games (+15.70 Units / 50% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 77% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.18, Texas Rangers 4.71

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers

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