Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 6/3/2025

On June 3, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Texas Rangers at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Rays at 30-29 and the Rangers at 29-31. The Rays have struggled to find consistency this season, while the Rangers are attempting to reverse a downward trend.

On the mound, Drew Rasmussen is projected to start for the Rays. He holds a 4-4 record this season with an impressive ERA of 2.33, ranking him as the 29th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. However, his 3.54 xFIP suggests that he might have been a bit lucky, potentially indicating that his performance could decline. Rasmussen projects to pitch approximately 5.3 innings, allowing around 2.2 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 4.8 hits and 1.2 walks per game could be concerning.

The Rangers will counter with Tyler Mahle, who carries a solid 5-2 record and an excellent ERA of 1.64. However, his 4.24 xFIP suggests that he, too, may have benefited from favorable circumstances. Mahle is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but also struggles with walks, averaging 1.6 per game.

Given the current odds, the Rays are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their better overall performance and a high implied team total of 4.27 runs. With their better offensive capabilities and a more reliable bullpen ranked 13th in MLB, the Rays look to capitalize on the Rangers' offensive woes in this matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Tyler Mahle (34.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Tampa Bay's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Marcus Semien has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 57.7% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jose Caballero has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 85.7-mph average to last year's 83.5-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays bats have struggled as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 2nd-worst in MLB.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 46% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.43, Tampa Bay Rays 4.46

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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