Texas Rangers vs Washington Nationals Pick – 6/6/2025

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Texas Rangers on June 6, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings with records of 29-33 and 29-34, respectively. This Interleague matchup marks the first game of the series and carries significant implications for both squads as they look to turn their seasons around.

In this game, it is Mike Soroka projected to take the mound for the Nationals. Soroka, despite a disappointing 2-3 record and an ERA of 5.81 this year, has been unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.62, suggesting he could improve. The Nationals' offense ranks 15th in MLB, showing average potential but has been bolstered by their strong base-running, ranking 6th in stolen bases.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Patrick Corbin, whose 3.71 ERA is misleading given his status as one of the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics. Corbin's xFIP of 4.30 indicates he may be due for regression, especially against a Nationals lineup that has been adept at avoiding strikeouts.

With the Nationals' bullpen ranked 9th and the Rangers’ bullpen languishing at 30th, the advantage leans toward Washington in critical late-game situations. The game total is set high at 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive output. The Nationals, with an implied team total of 4.58 runs, may find themselves in a favorable position, especially given the Rangers’ offensive struggles, ranked 29th overall.

As both teams look to capitalize on their respective strengths and weaknesses, this matchup could provide the Nationals with an opportunity to gain ground in a tightly contested series.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Because flyball pitchers hold a substantial edge over flyball hitters, Patrick Corbin and his 43.9% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in this game facing 6 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Marcus Semien has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Marcus Semien pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mike Soroka has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.7% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

James Wood has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last year's 96.6-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals projected batting order projects as the 4th-worst of all teams on the slate in of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+9.50 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 58 games (+16.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.86, Washington Nationals 4.46

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.