Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/25/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 25, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
• Run Line: Blue Jays 1.5 -205, Royals -1.5 175
• Money Line: Blue Jays 100, Royals -120
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 48%
• Kansas City Royals - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 47.7%
• Kansas City Royals - 52.3%

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 25, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. As the home team, the Royals will aim to continue their impressive season with a record of 15-10. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have been performing above average with a record of 13-12.

The Royals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans, who is ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his win/loss record of 0-2, Ragans has an ERA of 4.32 this season, suggesting that he has been performing at an average level. His xFIP of 2.75 indicates that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays will start right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios, who is considered an average pitcher according to our Power Rankings. Berrios has been impressive this season with a perfect 4-0 record and an excellent ERA of 0.85. However, his xFIP of 3.63 suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in future games.

In of offensive rankings, the Royals rank 12th in MLB, while the Blue Jays rank 13th. The Royals have a solid team batting average, ranking 19th, but struggle with home runs, ranking 26th. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th. The Blue Jays have a great team batting average, ranking 5th, and an average ranking in home runs and stolen bases.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets anticipate a close game. The Royals are favored with a moneyline of -120, giving them a 52% implied win probability, while the Blue Jays have a moneyline of +100, suggesting a 48% win probability.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 12th-worst infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone team of batters of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has averaged 94.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 140 games (+10.49 Units / 6% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Royals Prediction: Blue Jays 4.45 - Royals 4.41

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