Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/21/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
• Run Line: Blue Jays 1.5 -185, Padres -1.5 160
• Money Line: Blue Jays 110, Padres -130
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 46%
• San Diego Padres - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 47.44%
• San Diego Padres - 52.56%

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

The San Diego Padres are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays in an Interleague matchup on April 21, 2024, at Petco Park. The Padres, with an 11-12 record this season, are having a below-average season, while the Blue Jays, with a 12-9 record, are performing well.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove, who has a 2-2 win/loss record this year. Musgrove has started five games and has an ERA of 6.29, which is considered poor. However, his 4.86 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Musgrove is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 4.7 batters.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will likely start right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt. Bassitt has a 2-2 win/loss record with an ERA of 4.03 this season. His 5.56 xERA indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future. Bassitt is projected to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters.

The Padres offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season, showing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 20th, indicating room for improvement. They excel in home runs (ranked 10th) and stolen bases (ranked 7th). The Blue Jays offense is considered average, ranking 14th overall. However, they have a great team batting average (ranked 5th) and average rankings in home runs (ranked 15th) and stolen bases (ranked 19th).

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Padres bullpen is ranked 6th best in MLB, while the Blue Jays bullpen is ranked 7th best. This suggests that both teams have solid relief pitching.

Based on the current odds, the Padres have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs, while the Blue Jays have an average implied team total of 3.81 runs. The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.0 runs.

Considering the team's records and the projected performances of the starting pitchers, the Padres are slight favorites with a 54% implied win probability, while the Blue Jays have a 46% implied win probability. The betting markets anticipate a close game.

It will be an intriguing matchup between the Padres and the Blue Jays, with both teams looking to secure a victory. The Padres will rely on their strong offense and bullpen, while the Blue Jays will count on their solid batting average and bullpen performance. With the game being played at Petco Park, the home advantage could play a role in the outcome.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 6.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Davis Schneider is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Bo Bichette is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 42.7% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove's slider rate has jumped by 9.1% from last season to this one (14.5% to 23.6%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Hitting 3 HRs over the last 14 days, Jake Cronenworth has been on fire lately.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luis Campusano (the Padres's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games at home (+12.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 135 games (+10.04 Units / 6% ROI)
• Chris Bassitt has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Padres Prediction: Blue Jays 4.3 - Padres 4.27

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