Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 5/27/2025

The Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays are set to clash on May 27, 2025, in what could be a pivotal matchup for both teams, especially given their current standings. The Rangers are struggling with a record of 26-29, while the Blue Jays sit slightly better at 26-27, indicating a battle between two teams looking to find their footing.

Nathan Eovaldi is projected to take the mound for Texas, boasting a solid 4-3 record and an impressive 1.60 ERA this season, ranking him as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Eovaldi’s ability to generate ground balls (53% GB rate) could work in his favor against a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled to generate power, ranking 25th in home runs.

Bowden Francis will counter for Toronto, but his season has been less than stellar, with a 2-6 record and a troubling 5.54 ERA. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he may perform better moving forward, as his xFIP of 4.62 projects a slight improvement. However, Francis faces a daunting task against a Rangers offense that, while ranked 27th overall, has shown signs of life with an average of 4.40 runs implied by betting lines.

Overall, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -160, reflecting a higher expectation for their performance today. Given Eovaldi's form and the Blue Jays' offensive inconsistencies, Texas seems poised to capitalize on this matchup and could secure a much-needed win to start turning their season around.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis's four-seamer percentage has risen by 6% from last season to this one (49.2% to 55.2%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Toronto's 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the majors: #9 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.9-mph drop off from last year's 95.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Checking in at the 88th percentile for base-stealing, Wyatt Langford has paced 28.6 steals per 600 plate appearances this year.

• Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).

Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.45 Units / 39% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.37, Texas Rangers 4.41

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

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