The UFC 316 co-main event in Newark on June 7 matches reigning bantamweight titleholder Julianna Peña with two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison. This fight could reshape a division still searching for a long-term star after Amanda Nunes walked away. Here, you will find my Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison prediction.
Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison Preview
Pena, 35, enters at 13-5 with 3 knockouts, 6 submissions, and 4 decision wins. Fighting out of Chicago, the 5 ft 6 in champion has a 69 in reach, an orthodox stance, and a fearless pace that yields a high volume of both strikes and takedowns in her fights. She reclaimed the strap at UFC 307 via split decision over Raquel Pennington, yet the vast majority of media scorecards thought she lost, fuel for doubters but also proof she thrives in messy, close fights.
Harrison is 34, 5 ft 8 in with a 66 in reach. Her 18-1 record features 6 knockouts, 7 submissions, and 5 decisions, giving her a 72% finish rate. Since crossing over from the PFL to the UFC last year, she is 2-0, including a unanimous decision over Ketlen Vieira that earned this shot. A sixth-degree judoka, Harrison chains inside trips and hip throws into smothering top control, logging double-digit ground strikes in 11 of her last 14 bouts.
The build-up has revolved around two questions:
- Weight management: Harrison itted she “was peeing blood” while making 135 lb for UFC 307. If the cut again drains her, Peña’s superior cardio after minute 15 could flip the momentum.
- Peña’s durability: Since 2020, she has been knocked down several times but survived every trip to the canvas except Nunes’ 2022 decision. Her scramble game forced Amanda into desperation shots in their first meeting and could tax Harrison if the challenger cannot secure long periods of mount or half-guard.
On the feet, Harrison is southpaw, throws short left hands, and kicks mainly to enter a clinch. Harrison’s strike differential is positive because opponents spend long stretches under her. However, inside boxing exchanges could go either way in this matchup.
Betting Insights
Sportsbooks opened Harrison as a heavy favorite, and the line has held steady with Harrison at −750, Peña at +525. For prop hunters:
- Method markets: Harrison by decision sits near +200, by submission around +125, by knockout/technical knockout +300. Peña by decision stands at +1100, by knockout is +2000, and by submission at +1200.
- Fight to Go the Distance: Yes is +165, No is -235
- Live angles: Peña’s comeback win over Nunes showed how her price can balloon after early adversity. If Harrison controls the first 10 minutes but fails to finish, Peña live lines may attract value-seekers.
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Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison Prediction
Expect Harrison to push the pace early, lock body clinch, and test Peña’s balance with outside trips. Peña’s wide base and strong defense will force Harrison to work harder than she did against Vieira, and the champion’s jab-overhand combination could land as the challenger shoots. Nevertheless, Harrison’s top-side pressure, shoulder-pin control, and ability to guard should bank the opening two rounds.
The pivotal stretch is rounds 3 and 4. If Harrison’s gas tank holds after the cut, she can replicate her Vieira performance, mixing knee-on-belly strikes with conservative wrist rides to avoid Peña’s hip-heists. Should she slow, Peña will surge, throwing volume, framing to stand, and possibly hunting a front-headlock. However, Harrison’s camp at American Top Team spent eight weeks drilling incremental mat returns precisely for this scenario.
My pick is Kayla Harrison by fourth-round TKO. Early positional dominance will sap Peña’s scrambling energy, and once the champion gives up mount or back exposure under fatigue, Harrison’s short elbows from head-and-arm control can force the referee’s hand. Peña remains a live dog because of her heart and submission threat, yet the matchup favors the stronger wrestler who also carries a slight youth advantage.
