The bantamweight division takes center stage at UFC 316 on June 7, as reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili welcomes former titleholder Sean O’Malley back for a second meeting. Nine months ago, “The Machine” nullified O’Malley’s striking with relentless wrestling to lift the belt by unanimous decision. Since that night, both athletes have retooled every element of their preparation: Dvalishvili sharpened his boxing while extending his UFC win streak to 12, and O’Malley rebuilt his body after hip surgery and devoted an entire camp to grappling. Here, we break down this fight and make our Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley prediction before UFC 316.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley Preview
Dvalishvili is now 19-4 professionally and has not been stopped in a fight since his last loss all the way back in 2018. His engine remains unprecedented at 135 lbs, as he is great at both generating takedowns and defending against them. He shattered Georges St-Pierre’s career takedown record in January, which speaks to just how relentless he’s been in that facet of his game. Although finishes are scarce, with just 4 of his 19 wins ending early, he overwhelms opponents with volume, which he will look to use to his advantage in this fight.
O’Malley walks in at 18-2 (1 NC) with 12 knockouts and with an incredibly high significant strike rate. He limits damage well, yet his defensive wrestling lags behind that of elite grapplers. In September, he conceded six takedowns to Dvalishvili, spending over 10 minutes under control. For the rematch, “Suga Sean” added daily wrestling sessions, trimmed distractions by quitting social media, and lengthened camp to 13 weeks to boost cardio.
- Dvalishvili key numbers: 12-fight UFC streak, reach of 68 inches.
- O’Malley key numbers: reach of 72 inches, 9-2-1 UFC record.
- First meeting stats: Dvalishvili out-attempted takedowns 15-0, logged 6 successful, and out-struck O’Malley 214-49 in total strikes.
Stylistically, every round starts standing, an area where O’Malley shines with sniping footwork and explosive entries. Dvalishvili, however, needs only a brief clinch to chain takedowns and accumulate control time. The Georgian’s willingness to shoot repeatedly, even after failed attempts, forces strikers to defend while fatigue sets in. O’Malley must keep the champion outside of range, punish level changes with knees or uppercuts, and avoid giving his back against the fence where trips materialize.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline: Dvalishvili −300 / O’Malley +240
- Fight Goes the Distance: Yes −275 / No +225
- Dvalishvili by Decision: -170
- O’Malley by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission: +425
- O’Malley by Decision: +600
The odds illustrate that Dvalishvili is expected to retain his title after this fight. Props favor a long fight, which is appropriate, given Dvalishvili’s 15 decision victories and O’Malley’s lone stoppage defeat coming five years ago. If you anticipate sustained wrestling exchanges without significant submission threats, the Over 4.5 rounds line offers modest value.
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Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley Prediction
Expect the challenger to start aggressively, switching stances and peppering kicks to limit level changes. Early success is plausible, as O’Malley’s reach and hand speed can disrupt Dvalishvili before the first shot lands. The critical question for O’Malley is sustainability. History shows that even durable strikers slow once the champion’s chain-wrestling drags them into tie-ups. O’Malley’s newfound grappling focus will improve scramble choices, yet replicating Nurmagomedov-tier takedown defense inside one camp is unlikely.
Dvalishvili’s path remains clear: pressure, clinch, lift, repeat. His cardio edge grows with every exchange, and the belt holder has demonstrated an ability to adjust mid-fight if entries are stuffed. Meanwhile, O’Malley’s best chance is an early finish or accumulating damage quickly enough to dissuade takedown attempts. In a five-round scenario, the probability of at least 3 successful takedowns from Dvalishvili feels high, and each minute of top position weighs heavily on judges under the scoring criteria prioritizing control after damage.
- Official pick: Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision.
- Suggested bet: Dvalishvili by Decision at -170 range, which aligns with his usual winning method.
- Secondary angle: Fight to go the distance at -250, covering a potential O’Malley scorecard victory while profiting from the champion’s toughness.
