Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction – NBA Finals Game 1

The 2025 NBA Finals tip off tonight as the Indiana Pacers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center. Both franchises are chasing their first championship in their current cities, and Game 1 sets the tone for what promises to be a high-octane series. The Thunder enter as favorites, led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Pacers counter with All-Star Tyrese Haliburton and a deep, balanced roster. Here, we bring you our Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

Oklahoma City has been dominant all season, finishing with the NBA's best record and breezing through the Western Conference playoffs. Their offense is powered by Gilgeous-Alexander, who has averaged 29.8 points and 6.9 assists per game during the postseason. He’s complemented by Jalen Williams, an All-NBA Third Team and All-Defensive Second Team selection, who has posted 20.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game in the playoffs. The Thunder's defense is equally impressive, allowing just 106.3 points per game, ranking fourth among teams in the playoffs.

At home, the Thunder have been nearly unbeatable, especially against Eastern Conference teams. They have not lost at Paycom Center to an Eastern opponent since March 12, 2024. Their balanced attack and depth make them a formidable opponent, with former New York Knick Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren helping them protect the rim while both contribute offensively.

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

The Pacers have defied expectations throughout the playoffs, advancing to the Finals for the first time since 2000. Haliburton is the leader of the team with 18.8 points and 9.8 assists per game in the playoffs, orchestrating an offense that ranks among the league's best. Pascal Siakam has added a team-high 21.1 points per game in the postseason, providing a reliable scoring option and cooking the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals. Bennedict Mathurin has emerged as a key contributor off the bench and he will be important to Indiana's success in a reserve role here.

Indiana's offense is potent, averaging 117.4 points per game in the playoffs, but their defense has been a concern, allowing 113.3 points per game in their playoff games. They will need to tighten up defensively to contend with Oklahoma City's high-powered attack. That will start with defending Gilgeous-Alexander without fouling. The Pacers' ability to push the pace and score in transition could be a key factor in this series.

Pacers vs Thunder Game 1 Betting Odds

• Spread: Thunder -9.5
• Over/Under: 231
• Moneyline: Thunder -410, Pacers +320

The Thunder are favored by 9.5 points, reflecting their strong home-court advantage and overall performance this season. The total is set at 231, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair between two of the league's top offenses. But early jitters in the first NBA Finals for both of these rosters could be a factor.

Pacers vs Thunder Game 1 Prediction

Oklahoma City's combination of elite offense and stifling defense makes them a tough matchup for any team. Their depth and experience give them the edge in this series, especially at home. Indiana's dynamic offense can keep them competitive, but their defensive lapses could be costly against a team as efficient as the Thunder.

Expect the Thunder to cover the spread in Game 1, leveraging their home-court dominance and balanced attack. The total could go over, given both teams' offensive capabilities, but the safer bet is on Oklahoma City to win and cover.

1. Pick: Thunder -9.5
2. Lean: Over 231

Predicted Final Score: Indiana Pacers 111.89, Oklahoma City Thunder 123.04

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Win Probabilities

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