Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars Game 5 Pick – 5/29/2025

Game 5 of the Western Conference Final arrives tonight in Dallas, with the Oilers holding a 3-1 series lead after three straight wins by a combined 13-2 margin. Another victory will push Edmonton into a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final, while Dallas must halt a skid that has suddenly exposed scoring dry spells and shaky special-teams work. The American Airlines Center crowd will try to revive a Stars club that finished 28-10-3 on home ice in the regular season, but the Oilers travel well and now own all the momentum.

Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars Game 5 Preview

Edmonton’s offense keeps humming even without winger Zach Hyman, who remains out after a heavy hit in Game 4, and fellow forward Connor Brown, also sidelined. Leon Draisaitl has 23 playoff points, second only to teammate Connor McDavid. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins extended his torrid run to four consecutive multi-point outings, giving coach Kris Knoblauch plenty of depth behind McDavid. Goaltender Stuart Skinner shook off an uneven first round and earned 28 saves on 29 shots in Game 4.

Dallas has home ice and a top line headlined by Jason Robertson, who scored in the last two contests, but secondary punch has vanished. Mikko Rantanen, acquired at the deadline for a steep package, sits on two assists in four games and has seen his scoring run end, and the Stars have only two goals in the past three contests. Roope Hintz returned from a foot injury but logged just one shot on goal. Jake Oettinger he has been beaten nine times over the previous two games while facing heavy Oilers traffic.

Team metrics illustrate contrasting paths. The Stars averaged 3.35 goals for and 2.71 against during the regular season, edging Edmonton’s 3.16 and 2.87. Dallas relied on an efficient penalty kill at 82 %, but Edmonton’s power play is converting at 23.7% and has struck in seven consecutive games, including twice in Game 4. Shots per game favor Edmonton 32.0 to 28.4, a gap that has widened this series as the Oilers forecheck has worn down the Stars’ blue line.

The tactical chessboard tilts toward Edmonton because Dallas has fed the Oilers transition by forcing low-percentage cross-ice plays. Edmonton’s blue line, highlighted by Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard, quickly moves pucks north, and the Oilers have owned the slot, out-high-danger-chancing the Stars 29-14 across the last three outings. Dallas needs a territorial game and must cash in on early looks to avoid chasing again.

Betting Insights

• Moneyline: Stars −134, Oilers +112.
• Puck line: Oilers +1.5 −230, Stars −1.5 +184.
• Goals line: 5.5 with the over −130 and the under +106.
• Edmonton is 5-1 straight-up in its past six road playoff games.
• Dallas owns a 7-4 record when favored by at least −120 at home this postseason.
• The under has cashed in four of the previous six series meetings.

Market movement opened with Dallas −115 on some boards, yet steady Oilers money has squeezed that number before a late Stars rebound to the current −134. Total goals remain 5.5, although juice on the over climbed from −120 to −130 as bettors expect Dallas to push the pace.

Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars Game 5 Prediction

Dallas will deliver its best surge in front of an urgent home crowd, but the matchup problems that surfaced over the last week still linger. Edmonton’s speed through neutral ice outflanks the slower Stars defense, and Skinner has rediscovered form at precisely the right moment. If Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl continue to tilt special-teams play, the Oilers need only moderate five-on-five success to finish the job.

Under 5.5 goals deserves consideration because elimination games often tighten, yet the better edge rests with the road underdog. Edmonton at +112 provides plus money on the club with the hotter goaltender, the sharper power play, and three cracks already at Oettinger. Expect Dallas to fire early, but Edmonton’s counter will break through by the second period. Take the Oilers moneyline as they should set up a rematch with the Panthers.

Pick: Oilers +112 on the moneyline | Lean: Under 5.5.

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free NHL picks here.