Two teams that expected brighter starts collide Tuesday night as the Dallas Wings travel to Mohegan Sun Arena seeking their first victory of 2025 against an equally win-hungry Connecticut Sun. Dallas has dropped 4 straight despite flashes of brilliance from No. 1 pick Paige Bueckers, while Connecticut’s rebuilt roster has labored through similar growing pains at 0-4. Here, we break down Wings vs Sun and make our pick for this matchup, where one team will get its first win of the season.
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Wings vs Sun Preview
Dallas’ offense has shown hints of upside even during their season-opening slide. The Wings average 77.8 points on 39.7% shooting and have eclipsed 80 points in two of their first four outings. Their most recent loss came in Saturday’s 83-75 defeat in Atlanta where bench spark Maddy Siegrist poured in 12 and NaLyssa Smith chipped in 13. Bueckers paces the club at 13.0 points and 6.3 assists, while forward Myisha Hines-Allen owns the glass at 7.0 rebounds a night.
Going into this game, a huge storyline for the Wings has been the struggles of All-Star guard Arike Ogunbowale. Ogunbowale scored just five points in Atlanta on Saturday, shooting 2/10 from the field. If the Wings want any chance to turn their season around, she is going to need to rediscover her shooting touch.
Connecticut enters averaging just 68.0 points and shooting 37.6%, with offensive numbers that rank at or near the bottom of the league in most major categories. Tina Charles leads them with 14.5 points and 6.8 boards, but help has been sporadic. Marina Mabrey is the primary creator (3.8 assists), rookie Saniya Rivers supplies energy on the perimeter, and new head coach Rachid Meziane continues to search for workable combinations after an offseason overhaul that saw all five starters depart. The Sun’s halfcourt sets funnel through Charles on the block, yet spacing has been cramped, producing just 5.0 made threes per game.
If recent results are a guide, Dallas owns the quicker pace and deeper bench, while Connecticut leans on defense to compensate for limited shot-making. Both squads sit in the bottom three in the W in net rating, but Dallas’ rebound numbers (35.5 per game) mirror the Sun’s and should prevent the hosts from winning the second-chance points battle. Interior discipline will be crucial because Connecticut’s best stretches come when Charles draws doubles and can distribute.
Betting Insights
Oddsmakers opened Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite; early money steamed the line to -4.5 with a total of 160.5. The moneyline sits around Wings -190, Sun +160, implying roughly a 63-percent win probability for the visitors.
- Dallas 2025 record: 0-4 straight up, 1-3 against the spread; totals 1-3 to the Under.
- Connecticut 2025 record: 0-4 straight up, 1-3 ATS; totals 1-3 to the Under.
- Wings average 77.8 PPG and allow 86.5; Sun score 68.0 and concede 83.0.
- Neither side lists a major injury; Connecticut guard Lindsay Allen is day-to-day, and rookie Leila Lacan remains out, trimming back-court depth.
- Dallas has cashed just 6 of its last 20 road tickets dating to 2024, but Connecticut is 2-8 ATS over its past 10 at Mohegan Sun Arena.
The total has fallen below the number in 6 of the 8 combined games these clubs have played. Connecticut’s most recent outing, a 79-55 setback to Atlanta, came in 24 points short of the closing line, while Dallas’ 83-75 loss landed 8 points below. Bettors clearly weighed those offensive woes when hammering the under down from an opener of 162.5 at several shops.
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Wings vs Sun Prediction
There is no sugar-coating the rough starts, yet context matters. Dallas has already faced unbeaten Minnesota twice and a veteran Seattle club. Connecticut’s defeats include double-digit losses to Las Vegas and a 5-point stumble against Washington. The Wings possess cleaner shot creators and a higher ceiling if Bueckers finds room to operate off high screens. Meanwhile, the Sun’s reliance on mid-post isolations from Charles slows possessions and limits transition opportunities where they might exploit Dallas’ turnover rate (13.8 per game).
Expect Dallas to deploy two-guard pressure to disrupt Mabrey, forcing Connecticut into late-clock looks that have plagued them all month. Offensively, Dallas should continue to push pace, and the Sun’s individual defenders have struggled to stay in front of quick guards. If Ogunbowale heats up and Siegrist stretches the floor, Connecticut will be hard-pressed to keep the total inside the mid-60s range that suits them. With both clubs desperate, a tight first half is possible, but Dallas’ deeper scoring pool should surface over 40 minutes.
Pick: Dallas Wings -4.5. Lean Under 160.5, projecting a final around 82-70 as Bueckers pilots Dallas to its first win while Connecticut’s offense continues to sputter.
