The New York Liberty welcome the expansion Golden State Valkyries back to Barclays Center on Thursday night for the second installment of a two-game set. Tip-off is slated for 7:00 PM ET, and the hosts arrive on a 4-game unbeaten run that already includes Tuesday’s emphatic 95-67 victory in the first Valkyries vs Liberty matchup. For the Valkyries, Thursday is an immediate chance to erase the taste of their first double-digit defeat and prove they can cope with the league’s reigning champions on short rest.
Valkyries vs Liberty Preview
The Liberty are flying. They lead the league in scoring at 94.0 points per game while posting a blistering 49.8% field-goal percentage and a whopping 25.3 assists per contest. Breanna Stewart’s efficient 19.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per outing headline a deep frontcourt that also features Jonquel Jones, whose 9.8 boards set the tone on the glass. Offseason acquisition Natasha Cloud has transformed the Liberty backcourt, handing out 8.3 assists a night and pushing the pace that powered New York’s 2024 title run.
Golden State sits 2-2 after their first four WNBA games. Former Liberty player Kayla Thornton paces the new franchise at 12.8 points and 6.3 rebounds, and her defensive assignment is almost certain to be Stewart once more. Point guard Veronica Burton has flashed creativity (4.3 assists), but the group is still learning on the fly. Their averages of 73.0 points, 35.9% shooting, and 14.8 assists underscore that growing process.
Key personnel notes:
- Liberty forward Nyara Sabally (knee) is listed as day-to-day, but the rest of the New York rotation is intact.
- Valkyries are without wing Cecilia Zandalasini.
Tuesday’s blowout revealed the fault lines Golden State must shore up. They coughed up 23 turnovers that fed New York’s transition game, allowed Marine Johannès six triples, and trailed 27-10 after one quarter. Even so, the Valkyries trimmed the gap to 11 late in the third before a 28-16 final period slammed the door.
Betting Insights
- Spread: Liberty -18.5 (-110); Valkyries +18.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Liberty -4000; Valkyries +1550
- Total: 164.5 (-110 both sides)
- Liberty ATS: 3-1 this season; they covered Tuesday’s closing -18.5 by 9 points.
- Valkyries ATS: 2-2 overall but 2-1 across their past 3 outings.
- Recent form:
- Liberty last 5: W 95-67 vs GS, W 90-88 at IND, W 99-74 at CHI, W 92-78 vs LV
- Valkyries last 5: L 67-95 at NY, W 82-73 at LA, W 76-74 vs WSH, L 67-84 vs LA
- Pace factor: Liberty possessions per game rank top 3 league-wide; Valkyries are bottom 4, suggesting a tug-of-war in tempo.
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Valkyries vs Liberty Prediction
The spread has remained huge between these teams after Tuesday’s 28-point margin, and the odds board reflects the gulf in cohesion between the squads. Yet blowouts rarely duplicate two days later, especially with professional pride at stake. Golden State’s coaching staff will prioritise ball security, as shaving their giveaways from 23 to roughly 15 could be worth eight or nine points alone. They should also see positive regression from beyond the arc after shooting 11/31 on Tuesday.
New York remains the superior outfit in every phase. Stewart is converting 57.4% from the field, Jones has recorded double-digit rebounds in three of four games, and Cloud orchestrates an unselfish attack that can score from all five positions. Even a modest dip in efficiency still projects the champions near 90 points. The Liberty’s defensive versatility makes life difficult for a Valkyries offense dependent on Thornton and Burton.
Oddsmakers have correctly priced a one-sided encounter, but the total may hold more value than the spread. If Golden State focuses on half-court sets and improved possession care, a few fewer Liberty run-outs combined with natural late-game pace slippage could drag the aggregate below 165. Meanwhile, backing Stewart to exceed her season scoring average in player props remains attractive, as she scored 24 in just 27 minutes on Tuesday and faces the same defender group.
Best bet: Under 164.5
Side lean: Liberty should still win by double figures, yet an 18-point cushion is large in the second meeting. If forced, take Valkyries +18.5 and hope a tightened scheme plus situational fatigue keeps New York under 90.
Projected score: Liberty 88, Valkyries 70
