The Golden State Valkyries will visit the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday, June 5, 2025, at PHX Arena. This early-season contest features an expansion team still finding its footing against a Mercury squad that has navigated injuries to key players yet has remained competitive. Both teams lost their last outing to the Minnesota Lynx and will look to get back into the win column here. Continue reading to get my Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury prediction before Thursday’s game.
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Golden State Valkyries Betting Preview
As a new franchise, the Golden State Valkyries have faced the expected growing pains. They have struggled to secure wins, with their 2-4 record reflecting the challenges of building team chemistry and experience. Of course, the Valkyries have played the New York Liberty twice and the Minnesota Lynx in their last three games, so they can be excused for losing three straight to last year’s WNBA finalists. Despite these hurdles, individual players have shown promise, including Janelle Salaün.
Salaün has emerged as a standout, with averages of 12.0 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Her high motor, despite some early shooting inefficiencies, makes her a focal point in the Valkyries’ rotation. Here, she has a chance to prove herself against a very good Phoenix frontcourt in one of the biggest tests of her rookie campaign.
The more experienced players for the Valkyries will be important as well if Golden State is to have any chance at winning in Phoenix. Veronica Burton and Kayla Thornton are key cogs in the team’s offense, with Thornton leading the team in scoring and Burton leading them in assists. Julie Vanloo’s three-point shooting is also crucial, as this team needs to be able to spread the floor with the pieces it has as much as possible.
So far this year, the Valkyries are 4-2 against the spread despite their struggles in the standings. They have seen five of their six games go under their respective totals, a sign that Golden State’s plan is to play slowly and try to reduce the number of possessions in each game while hoping that their defense can get enough stops to help them compete.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
The Phoenix Mercury have managed a 5-3 start to the season, a commendable feat given injuries to key players like Kahleah Copper. Phoenix has won four of its first five games at home this year, with their only home loss coming to the Minnesota Lynx, who still have yet to lose a game in the 2025 season after making last year’s WNBA Finals.
The duo of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas has been great for Phoenix in their first seasons with the team. Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring and rebounding, averaging 20.5 points per game to go with 8.1 rebounds. Thomas is averaging a team-best 8.0 assists per game, continuing to do a little bit of everything like she did as an MVP candidate with the Connecticut Sun.
It remains to be seen whether or not Thomas will take part in this game for the Mercury. She has missed some time recently due to a calf injury and did not travel with the team to Minnesota for Tuesday’s game against the Lynx. If Thomas does not play, that will mean a heavier offensive burden on Sabally’s shoulders.
This season, Phoenix is 4-4 against the spread on the year. They have gone over the total in just two of their first eight games, with five unders and a push thrown in there as well. Should Thomas miss this game, it will be interesting to see how the Mercury handle this game from a pace perspective, as speeding up the Valkyries by running in transition would be a smart strategy to counter Golden State’s slowed-down approach.
Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Betting Odds
- Point Spread: Phoenix Mercury -7.5
- Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury -310, Golden State Valkyries +250
- Total Points: Over/Under 157
These odds from DraftKings Sportsbook reflect the Mercury’s stronger start to the season and the Valkyries’ ongoing development as a new team. The point spread indicates expectations of a competitive game, while the total points line suggests a game where Golden State will once again try to take the air out of the ball.
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Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction
The Mercury’s blend of veteran leadership and emerging talent positions them well against the inexperienced Valkyries. Despite injuries, Phoenix has demonstrated the ability to win at home against just about everyone. The Valkyries, while showing individual promise, have yet to coalesce into a consistent unit.
Considering the Mercury’s depth and the Valkyries’ struggles, Phoenix is likely to cover the spread as a favorite. Meanwhile, we lean toward the under as it pertains to the total, as Golden State should play slowly, while the Mercury may not be as efficient offensively with a banged-up or absent Thomas.
- Best Bet: Mercury -7.5
- Total Lean: Under 157
