The Commissioner’s Cup schedule brings a compelling Mercury vs Lynx matchup to Target Center on Tuesday night. Minnesota’s 86-75 victory over the Golden State Valkyries on June 1 lifted the club to 7-0 and cemented its place atop the Western Conference standings. Phoenix, meanwhile, rallied from 18 points down the same day to defeat the Los Angeles Sparks 85-80, moving to 5-2 and proving their new-look roster can finish tight contests.
Mercury vs Lynx Preview
Few players are performing at Napheesa Collier’s level right now. The forward tops the WNBA scoring table at 26.3 points per game and adds 8.3 boards, anchoring a Lynx defense that allows 76.1 points per game, which ranks third in the W. Her return from a brief absence Saturday produced 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists, hard evidence her injury scare is behind her. Around her, Kayla McBride’s 2.7 made threes per night stretch defenses, while Courtney Williams (6.4 apg) keeps the ball from sticking.
Phoenix is leaning heavily on the newly acquired duo of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas, especially with guard Kahleah Copper out due to a knee injury. The Mercury score 79.7 points and concede 75.3 points per game, a gap head coach Nate Tibbetts is trying to expand. Sabally and Thomas are averaging a combined 36.3 points, 15.7 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game. Phoenix will need that duo to perform at a high level here to offset the anticipated production of Collier, who has become the favorite to win this year’s WNBA MVP award.
These teams met on May 30 in Phoenix, with the Lynx winning that game 74-71. Sabally led all scorers in that contest with 26 points, while Collier sat out. But the Mercury shot just 3/26 from three-point range in that contest, failing to take advantage of Collier’s absence. Phoenix will need to shoot the ball better to win this matchup.
Betting Insights
- Point Spread: Lynx -10.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -625 / Phoenix +450
- Over/Under: 156.5
- Trends: The Lynx are 2-5 ATS this season despite being 7-0 straight up. Phoenix is 4-3 against the spread. Minneosta and Phoenix have both seen four of their seven games go under the total in 2025.
The point spread for this game reflects how impactful Collier is for Minnesota. The Lynx were favored by 4.5 points on the road without Collier against Minnesota and are now double-digit favorites at home with her.
Before tip-off from Minnesota, be sure to take advantage of the BetMGM first bet offer that can be used on this game. Just click on the Claim Bonus button on this page and sign up using code ATSBONUS to get started.
Mercury vs Lynx Prediction
The Lynx should win this game on their home floor to remain undefeated. The question will be whether or not they can win by enough to cover the big point spread. So far this season, the Lynx have not done a good job covering huge numbers. We expect that to remain the case here, as Phoenix has enough frontcourt play with Sabally and Thomas to offset everything that Collier can do for Minnesota.
Our expectation is that Minnesota wins this game by around 7 points, with the Mercury covering the spread in a game that will be competitive into the fourth quarter before the Lynx eventually pull away.
- Side: Mercury +10.5
- Total: Over 156.5
- Projected score: Minnesota 83, Phoenix 76
