On Friday night, the Seattle Storm host the Phoenix Mercury at Climate Pledge Arena, tip-off 10:00 p.m. ET. Seattle looks to avenge a 22-point loss suffered in the desert six days earlier, while Phoenix seeks its third straight victory and to keep its undefeated record. Current market numbers list the Storm as 7-point favorites going into this Mercury vs Storm matchup from the Pacific Northwest.
Mercury vs Storm Preview
Phoenix arrives 2-0 after ripping off back-to-back home wins over Seattle and Los Angeles. In those two triumphs, the Mercury averaged 85.0 points and shot 46.4% from the field, powered by offseason additions Satou Sabally (26.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 45.5 FG%) and Alyssa Thomas (19.5 PPG, 6.5 APG).
Sabally’s 27-point outburst led Phoenix past Seattle 81-59 in the opener of their four-game season series. Thomas filled the box score that night with seven boards and six assists, showcasing the play-making that has Phoenix averaging 21.0 assists, top-five league-wide, despite still awaiting the return of an injured Kahleah Copper.
Seattle counters with a 1-1 mark after brushing aside Dallas while faltering in Phoenix. Skylar Diggins (21.0 PPG, 6.5 APG, 2.0 SPG) orchestrates the offense, flanked by Nneka Ogwumike (17.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG) on the interior. Rookie Dominique Malonga and defensive ace Gabby Williams give coach Noelle Quinn flexibility, but the Storm’s halfcourt sets have sputtered to just 69.0 points a night, which won’t cut it against the elite teams in the W. Home court advantage could boost that output, along with the injuries impacting Phoenix going into this matchup.
Betting Insights
- Current line: Seattle -7; total 156.5; moneyline SEA -250 / PHX +205.
- Against the spread: Both clubs are 1-1 ATS through their first two regular season games.
- Totals trend: Phoenix contests have averaged 164.0 combined points in their last two outings, sailing over Friday’s number, while both Seattle games have ended under 156.
- Key injuries: Phoenix continues to list Kahleah Copper (knee) and Natasha Mack (back) as out; Seattle enters with Katie Lou Samuelson listed as out.
- Revenge angle: The Storm were favored by 6.5 in Phoenix and lost by 22; historically under Quinn, they are 7-2 ATS in the next meeting after a double-digit defeat to an opponent.
Those looking for extra value when betting on Mercury vs Storm can find that value by using our bet365 bonus code. At bet365, you can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets with your first wager, making it a perfect way to place your pick on this Western Conference showdown in the W.
Mercury vs Storm Prediction
The rematch sets up very differently from last Saturday’s blowout. Phoenix leaves the Valley for its first road game of the year and has leaned heavily on a short rotation. Sabally and Thomas average 32 minutes apiece, with Thomas essentially the lone front-court facilitator. Seattle, by contrast, deploys a deeper bench and owns the league’s third-best rebound rate thanks to Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor. The Storm’s defensive focus is to push Sabally off the arc (2.5 made triples per game) and force the Mercury’s secondary scorers to finish inside against length.
Look for Diggins to control tempo at home, exploiting Phoenix’s 14.5 turnovers per contest with high-pick-and-roll pressure and transition pushes that should lift the Storm closer to the mid-70s in possessions. With fresher legs, stronger rebounding, and the motivational edge of payback, the Storm are positioned to cover a modest number. Play Seattle -7 and lean under 156.5 in what figures to be a physical, half-court battle down the stretch.
